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MARCH 3,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:56 P.M. ET:

THE DEBATE – The Republican debate tonight, hosted by Fox, was an embarrassment.  Frankly, the debates are getting tiresome, and this one sounded like a schoolyard brawl.  The key question was whether Donald Trump, who'd been attacked earlier in the day by 2012 Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, would withstand new blows from Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz.  He did.  He didn't advance, but he wasn't particularly hurt.  John Kasich was there as well, and came off as adult and reasonably thoughtful.  I'd say no one won, and that the needle barely moved.  There are some primaries on Saturday, and more on Tuesday.  The next major date is March 15th.  Both Ohio and Florida vote.  John Kasich and Marco Rubio will fight to win their own home states.  Whoever doesn't will, I think, be seen as a goner.

TRUMP APPOINTS – From the Washington Examiner:   Donald Trump on Thursday named Sen. Jeff Sessions, R-Ala., as chairman of his national security advisory committee.  Trump's campaign said Sessions, a vocal advocate of tougher enforcement of the nation's immigration laws, would counsel Trump on foreign policy and homeland security.  "It is an honor to have Jeff as a member of the team," Trump said. "I have such great respect for him and I look forward to working with him on the issues most important to Americans."  "I am grateful for the opportunity to recommend and facilitate discussions among exceptional and experienced American military and diplomatic leaders to share insight and advice with Donald Trump, regardless of their political views," Sessions said. "Mr. Trump and the American people know our country needs a clear-eyed foreign policy rooted in the national interest."  Sessions is a serious man, but a number of national-security experts signed a statement today warning that Trump was not qualified to be dealing with foreign policy.  Expect a sustained assault by anti-Trump forces within the GOP, who are hoping for a contested convention as the only means available to stop Trump.

WARNING – From The Wall Street Journal:   Financially strapped companies’ ranks are swelling.  A Moody’s Investors Service tally of the least-creditworthy companies rose by 10 to 274 this month, pushing it nearer to April 2009’s record 291. The list comprises companies rated at least six notches into junk territory with a negative outlook–which suggests a further downgrade could come soon.  The uptrend is a sign that while the U.S. high-yield default rate remains below its long-term average (3.1% now versus 4.7% since 1983, per Moody’s), more corporate borrowers are finding themselves on shaky financial ground.  I'm not so sure the recession ever really ended.  I certainly don't see much optimism around.  This will be a major issue in the campaign.  Polls show it favors Trump.

March 3, 2016       Permalink

POOR HILLARY, THEY'RE ALWAYS AFTER HER – AT 11:50 A.M. ET:  I don't know what they want with this woman of the people.  After all she's done for us...  From Catherine Herridge and Pamela K. Browne at Fox:

EXCLUSIVE: The FBI is investigating whether computer passwords were shared among Hillary Clinton's close aides to determine how sensitive intelligence "jumped the gap" between the classified systems and Clinton's unsecured personal server, according to an intelligence source familiar with the probe.

The source emphasized to Fox News that “if [Clinton] was allowing other people to use her passwords, that is a big problem.” The Foreign Service Officers Manual prohibits the sharing of passwords.

Such passwords are required to access each State Department network. This includes the network for highly classified intelligence -- known as SCI or Sensitive Compartmented Information -- and the unclassified system, known as SBU or Sensitive But Unclassified, according to former State Department employees.

COMMENT:  There have been several stories in the last few days that emphasize just how serious this investigation is.  I don't really think the FBI would be devoting all these resources to a parking ticket.  We've said before that this could turn out to be the biggest story of the campaign.  Still sayin' it.

March 3, 2016       Permalink

CHILLING – AT 10:58 A.M. ET:  We try to keep readers up to date on events outside our roaring political campaigns.  The world moves on, and often in very chilling directions.  From the Washington Times: 

Supreme Allied Commander Europe of NATO Allied Command Operations, General Philip Breedlove, says ISIS is using the Syrian refugee crisis to ‘mask the movement’ of terrorists infiltrating Europe and the United States. While testifying to the Senate armed services community, the four-star general said the Islamic State was "spreading like cancer" amongst the flow of migrants from the Middle East. The group’s members are "taking advantage of paths of least resistance, threatening European nations and our own," he added, reported The Guardian.

Breedlove also had harsh words for Russia, saying their indiscriminate bombing of civilians is intended to "get them on the road" to Europe, where they can weaken the European Union and NATO with violence and division. The general said Russia is "weaponizing" the Syrian refugees.

Breedlove says at least 1500 ISIS fighters have returned to Europe. “I’m not going to talk to you about intelligence,” he said at a news conference, adding that “many [countries] are saying they see planning happening” for a terrorist attack.

The Obama administration has said that Syrian refugees entering the United States are no threat as they are vetted over a long process. Republican president candidates have repeated over and over that this stance is incompetent and dangerous for Americans. Donald Trump has created a firestorm saying that Muslims should be temporarily banned until the vetting process can be verified and law enforcement can be sure that no terrorists are entering the country.

General Breedlove’s statements appear to support Donald Trump’s position.

COMMENT:  Democracies too quickly forget the last tragedy.  It will take a terrible jolt to wake this country up again, especially after eight years of Obama-induced sleep.

March 3, 2016       Permalink

MITT TO SPEAK – AT 10:18 A.M.  ET:  It won't be a pleasant day in Republican politics.  From NBC News: 

Former Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney will deliver a scorching indictment of Donald Trump on Thursday, calling the candidate a "phony" and a "fraud" who'd threaten America's future.

Romney is due to speak Thursday in Utah at the Hinckley Institute of Politics Forum on the state of the 2016 presidential race. Already a vocal critic of Trump, excerpts released ahead of the speech show Romney will go a step further in his attacks by accusing the GOP frontrunner of "playing the American public for suckers."

The repudiation of Trump — who endorsed Romney's 2012 run — will be the latest in a growing anti-Trump movement among some Conservatives.

Romney will harken back to a 1964 Ronald Reagan address in saying that America faces "another time for choosing" that could have "profound consequences" for the Republican Party and the country.

The Paris and San Bernardino attacks, China's assertiveness and North Korea's nuclear tests show we live in "troubled and dangerous times," Romney will say, adding that he believes America's future can be better "if we make the right choices."

He'll make the case that the real-estate tycoon is not the right choice.

COMMENT:  This is high-risk stuff.  On the one hand, Romney can further divide the party, setting off a mean-spirited debate, while Hillary Clinton, the real opponent, comes away unscathed.

On the other hand, Romney can lead a successful rebellion.  The Trump people, including all the new voters Trump has brought in, can leave, or turn against the Republicans, and possibly form a third-party movement.  Following today's Romney speech will be the GOP debate tonight. 

There'll be no shortage of drama today.  I wonder how many political junkies will call in sick, and stay home to watch.

March 3,  2016     Permalink

MARCH 2,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:54 P.M. ET: 

HILLARY SWEATS – From Fox:   The Justice Department has reportedly granted immunity to a former State Department staffer who worked on Hillary Clinton’s private email server.  A senior U.S. law enforcement official told The Washington Post on Wednesday that the FBI secured the cooperation of Bryan Pagliano, who worked on Clinton’s 2008 presidential campaign before setting up the private server at her New York home in 2009.  Current and former agents told the newspaper that agents will likely want to interview Clinton and her senior aides about the decision to use a private server, and whether any of the participants knew they were sending classified information in emails as part of the ongoing investigation.  This is a very big deal.  This guy took the Fifth when testifying before Congress because he didn't have immunity.  Now that he has it, he can sing.  Hillary must not be amused.

AMERICA MARCHES ON – From Gateway Pundit:  A reporter at a DFL caucus for Minnesota’s House District 60B could not report on the candidates’ speeches to caucus attendees because the speeches were only given in Somali.  Eric Roper with the Minneapolis Star-Tribune posted a series of tweets from the Brian Coyle Center in Minneapolis about the caucus. English speakers were in short supply in the area now populated by Somali refugees.  “Several Hillary Clinton supporters in this crowd in the center, I learned through a multi-person interpreter.”  Hey, shouldn't we all learn Somali?  It's the multicultural thing to do.  Down with the colonial language!

ROMNEY SPEAKS – There is semi-anticipation over the speech Mitt Romney is giving tomorrow in Utah.  The 2012 Republican presidential candidate is expected to vigorously denounce Donald Trump and warn of same.   I'll certainly watch it, but I wonder how much clout Romney has with the public.  He's hardly been in the news for the last four years, and he did lose in 2012.  Of course, it's possible, though unlikely, that Romney could offer himself as an alternative to Trump.  It's also possible, but unlikely, that he will announce the formation of a new party, or a new faction within the GOP.  Romney is clearly making his statement with the hope of shaking up the race.  But what has he shaken up lately? 

March 2,  2016     Permalink

STARTLING – AT 10:51 A.M. ET:  Politics does indeed make strange bedfellows.  Chris Christie has endorsed Donald Trump, whom he earlier had ridiculed and insulted.   And now we have Lindsey Graham, a former presidential contender, showing just how far the stop-Trump faction is willing to go to prevent Donald from getting the nomination.  From Weekly Standard: 

As Donald Trump racks up wins on Super Tuesday, many of the anti-Trump crowd are suggesting candidates for the GOP to rally behind.

Senator Lindsey Graham made a surprising suggestion—Ted Cruz. Graham has long been a vocal critic of the Texas senator, ran against him, and endorsed one of his opponents.

Charlie Rose asked Graham, "So there is no way, you're seem to be suggesting, at the convention or before the convention to stop DonaldTrump from being the nominee?"

He replied, "Short of a major scandal, probably not. And if Marco doesn't win Florida, I don't know how he goes forward. If Kasich loses Ohio... you know, Ted Cruz is not my favorite by any means. I don't wish him ill. I was making a joke about Ted, but we may be in a position where we have to rally around Ted Cruz as the only way to stop Donald Trump, and I'm not so sure that would work."

Rose followed up. "But you would recommend that in order to stop Donald Trump and rally behind Cruz?"

"I can't believe I would say yes, but yes."

COMMENT:   Polling shows a great deal of discontent about Trump in the Republican Party, but, as the saying goes, you can't beat somebody with nobody.  The anti-Trump brigades have to find a leader and support him.  The fact that they haven't done that up to now is killing their efforts.

March 2, 2016       Permalink

THEY REALLY DISLIKE HER – AT 9:51 A.M. ET:  Hillary Clinton may be steamrolling toward the Democratic nomination, but that doesn't mean the public is overwhelmed with enthusiasm.  In fact, her "we love you" rating has reached a new low.  From the Washington Free Beacon:   

Hillary Clinton’s unfavorability rating has hit a record high as the former secretary of state pushes to become the Democratic nomination for president, a campaign that has been weighed down by inquiries surrounding her use of private, unsecured email at the State Department.

Currently, 55 percent of American voters view Clinton unfavorably, according to a CNN/ORC poll released Tuesday that was conducted in the days leading up to the Democratic primary in South Carolina, which Clinton won over the weekend. This represents the highest unfavorable rating that Clinton has registered in the history of the poll, which has asked the question since March 1992.

The share of Americans viewing Clinton negatively has ticket up three percentage points in the last month as reports have continued to emerge about the presence of classified information on Clinton’s private server, a controversy that has been brewing for nearly a year.

More than 2,000 Clinton emails that the State Department has released to the public under court order contain classified information, though the agency and Clinton’s campaign have insisted that the correspondences were not marked classified when they originated on her email. Twenty-two messages have been upgraded to top secret, and those were blocked from release because of their high sensitivity.

COMMENT:  If she wins, she will probably be the most unpopular new president in the nation's history.  The same could probably be said of Donald Trump, should he win.

As the comedian Ted Lewis used to ask, "Is everybody happy?"

Uh, well...

March 2, 2016       Permalink

TED TAKES ALASKA – AT 9:22 P.M. ET:  Giving him three victories for the night.  From the Washington Times: 

JUNEAU, Alaska (AP) — A high-profile endorsement from former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin couldn’t deliver this state for Donald Trump as Ted Cruz won the Alaska Republican presidential preference poll.

Cruz, a U.S. senator from Texas, edged the national GOP front-runner in Alaska for his third win of Super Tuesday. Trump was still the night’s big Republican winner with victories in seven states. U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, who finished third in Alaska, won one state.

The other two candidates on Tuesday’s ballot in Alaska — John Kasich and Ben Carson — did not garner enough support to win any delegates.

The Alaska GOP reported high voter turnout that exceeded 2012 levels as thousands of Alaskans decided which of the remaining GOP presidential candidates would get their support. Party spokeswoman Suzanne Downing said in an email that volunteers manning polling sites were somewhat overwhelmed by the “unbelievable” turnout.

Some sites saw long lines, including the convention center that served as the lone polling location in Juneau, where dozens of people, including state legislators, lobbyists and Alaska’s first lady, waited their turn to vote. First lady Donna Walker declined to say who she supported.

State Sen. John Coghill, a Republican from North Pole, wasn’t shy in declaring his support for Cruz, seeing Cruz as closest to his own philosophy. He said Cruz and Rubio — but Cruz especially — seem to be more supportive of states’ rights. Coghill is among the state legislators who have been concerned about federal overreach. He said he would support whomever the Republican nominee winds up being.

COMMENT:  As noted, Cruz won three states last night, including his own delegate-rich state of Texas.  Trump did win seven, but that was against an opposition divided among Rubio, Cruz, Carson, and Kasich.  Trump's numbers weren't especially impressive.

While Trump does move closer to clinching the nomination, his delegate total is less than a third of the number needed for victory.  The race goes on. 

March 2,  2016     Permalink